Showing posts with label Important Papers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Important Papers. Show all posts

23 March 2017

Peace Education in Pakistan


This report measures the relative success of nine peace education initiatives in Pakistan. More specifically, the text grapples with six questions. 1) What types of interventions were most effective and in what contexts? 2) Were the implemented programs contextually relevant? 3) How was the quality of each initiative ensured? 4) What kinds of content and teaching formats worked best and where? 5) What differences and similarities exist between peace education programs and the curricula implemented in mainstream schools and madrassas? And 6) what lessons can those working in the peacebuilding field draw from the case studies selected here?

Sri Lanka Suffers from China´s Indian Ocean Strategy


This bulletin looks at the impact of China’s investments in Sri Lanka, which include assorted loans and the sale of the port in Hambantota to a Chinese firm. The bulletin’s author ultimately concludes that the investments aren’t boosting the local economy because the money isn’t staying in the country, which is a familiar way of doing business on Beijing’s part. In fact, it’s possible that Sri Lanka will have to be bailed out because of its crushing Chinese-owned debt. The author further argues that India must recalibrate its security strategy towards other South Asian countries if it hopes to respond effectively to China’s activities in the Indian Ocean.

22 March 2017

Military Spending For a New Strategic Reality: 2016 Roundtable Series Summary and Analysis


This text focuses on the impact America’s military budget could have on the country’s allies and partners. The text specifically focuses on 1) the difficulties of striking the right balance between force modernization and investing in new technologies, particularly in a fiscally constrained environment; 2) the global next-steps in arms control and nuclear weapons modernization; 3) the role the Trump administration will most likely assume in the world; and 4) what the international community should do to counter the propaganda-based warfare now being conducted in different parts of the world.

Strengthening the Asian Development Bank in 21st Century Asia


This report speculates on how the Asian Development Bank (ADB) can remain an influential actor in Asia. More specifically, the text’s authors 1) highlight how financial norms and practices have evolved in the region over the last 50 years; 2) review the ADB’s design and functions; 3) explore the economic challenges that are relevant to the Bank’s mission, and how it is trying to adapt to them; and 4) conclude that the ADB must maintain its neutrality in a geopolitically fraught environment, but not at the expense of giving more influence to its regional members.

20 March 2017

Pakistan: Stoking the Fire in Karachi


Facts are facts – ethnic, political and sectarian rivalries; jihadist groups; criminality and heavy-handed security policies are turning Pakistan's biggest city into a pressure cooker that's about to explode. According to this report, feuding politicians will have to set their conflicts aside or Karachi's law-and-order crisis may indeed reach the bursting point.

17 March 2017

After ISIS: U.S. Political-Military Strategy in the Global War on Terror


Sooner or later, and probably within the next few months, the United States and its coalition partners will defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) militarily, by collapsing its control of key areas in Iraq and Syria. That operational victory, however, will not necessarily prevent remnants of ISIS from reforming at a later date, nor will it bring a larger strategic triumph in the global war on terror. As long as large parts of the greater Middle East remain founts of ideological extremism, the United States will continue to confront a dangerous challenge from jihadist terrorism.

In this report, Hal Brands and Peter Feaver assess America's strategic options after ISIS by examining four politico-military strategies for counter-terrorism. They conclude that an enhanced version of the approach that the Obama administration took to defeating ISIS represents the best strategy for waging a dangerous conflict that is likely to endure for many years.


Download full “After ISIS: U.S. Political-Military Strategy in the Global War on Terror” report.

1 March 2017

Combating Terrorism Center’s Sentinel - February 2017 Issue Now Online


In an extensive interview, General John W. Nicholson, commander of Resolute Support and U.S. Forces-Afghanistan, stresses the importance of preventing the country from again becoming a platform for international terrorism, noting counterterrorism operations have almost halved the fighting strength of the Islamic State’s local affiliate. He also outlines the ongoing effort to empower Afghan efforts against the Taliban, saying: “They’re at a bit of a stalemate. The government holds about two-thirds of the population. The enemy holds a solid 8 to 10 percent. … We think [if] we get to about 80 percent or more, we start to reach a tipping point where the insurgency becomes more irrelevant.”

Our cover story by Georg Heil focuses on the deadly truck attack this past December in Berlin by Anis Amri, a Tunisian extremist suspected of links to Islamic State operatives in Libya. Investigations have made clear the danger posed by the radical network he belonged to in northwestern Germany led by an Iraqi preacher named Abu Walaa. It is believed to have recruited dozens to travel to join the Islamic State, communicated extensively with Islamic State operatives in Syria and Iraq, and encouraged attacks on German soil. Heil argues the high level of interconnectedness between these radicals in Germany and the Islamic State has potentially grave implications for European security.

24 February 2017

Local Conflict, Local Peacekeeping

This report examines how local conflicts undermine the mandates and effectiveness of UN peacekeeping missions. To help deal with the problem, the text’s authors 1) provide a framework which prioritizes the conflicts peacekeepers should address; 2) describe the ‘whole-of-mission’ approach UN missions should adopt in managing local struggles; and 3) recommend ways to strengthen the capacities and mandates of UN missions.


Author   Aditi Gorur, Madeline Vellturo 


Publisher  Stimson Center

21 February 2017

2017 Global Forecast

Global Forecast is an annual collection of essays by CSIS experts focused on the critical issues facing the U.S. and the world in the year ahead. 

John J. Hamre 

Michael J. Green 

A conversation with Heather A. Conley, Matthew P. Goodman, and Scott Miller 

Olga Oliker 

A conversation with Christopher K. Johnson, Victor Cha, and Amy Searight 

Andrew Shearer 

16 February 2017

Cyber Prep 2.0: Motivating Organizational Cyber Strategies in Terms of Threat Preparedness

Deborah J. Bodeau, Richard D. Graubart

As cyber threats evolve, organizations increasingly need to define their strategies for cyber security, defense, and resilience. Cyber Prep 2.0 is a threat-oriented approach that allows an organization to define and articulate its threat assumptions, and to develop organization-appropriate, tailored strategic elements. While Cyber Prep 2.0 focuses on advanced threats and corresponding elements of organizational strategy, it includes material related to conventional cyber threats. Cyber Prep 2.0 can be used in standalone fashion, or it can be used to complement and extend the use of other, more detailed frameworks (e.g., the NIST Cybersecurity Framework) and threat models. 

15 February 2017

Restoring American Seapower

By Bryan Clark, Peter Haynes, Jesse Sloman, Timothy Walton

A New Fleet Architecture for the United States Navy

The United States faces a very different set of security challenges than it has since the Cold War. Great power competitors such as China and Russia improved their military capabilities over the last two decades while America focused on Middle East insurgencies, and now appear willing to challenge the international order. They are likely to replace transnational terrorism in the near future as the primary concern of U.S. military planners. Gaining an advantage in great power competitions, deterring aggression, and reassuring allies will require changes to the ships, aircraft, weapons, sensors, basing, and readiness processes of U.S. naval forces, which essentially operated unopposed since the Berlin Wall fell. CSBA’s Restoring American Seapower: A New Fleet Architecture for the United States Navy explores those implications and proposes a new fleet construct for the U.S. Navy to pursue over the next two decades.

The Navy will need to take a new approach to deterring great power competitors than it did against regional powers such as Iraq. This new approach will also require innovative operating concepts, adaptive force packages, and a more distributed and robust naval posture that emphasizes effectiveness over efficiency. Together, new ways of operating, new deployment approaches, and new force packages require a larger and more diverse fleet of ships, aircraft, and unmanned systems. If the U.S. Navy does not pursue such a new architecture, by the 2030s the United States may not be able to effectively compete with great powers such as China and Russia or even regional powers such as Iran. This will undermine its alliance relationships, its economic health, and ultimately its place as an exceptional country.

7 February 2017

U.S.-SINO RELATIONS IN THE ARCTIC: A ROADMAP FOR FUTURE COOPERATION

Heather A. Conley, Europe Program

In May 2016, the CSIS Europe Program and Tongji University in China co-hosted its second annual forum on the Arctic in Washington, D.C. This forum seeks to strengthen dialogue and improve understanding on a full range of environmental, economic, institutional and strategic issues in the Arctic. We are pleased to present a new report, U.S.-Sino Relations in the Arctic: A Roadmap for Future Cooperation, which includes a collection of essays authored by U.S. and Chinese experts that describe areas of shared cooperation and interests, discuss regional challenges, and suggest future mechanisms of dialogue for the Arctic.

6 February 2017

Line in the waters: The South China sea dispute and its implications for Asia

ABHIJIT SINGH

Line in the Waters looks at emerging security dynamics in the Southeast Asian littorals and their impact on Asian geopolitics and security. It presents country perspectives of the strategic implications of recent developments in the South China Sea, their implications for maritime security and the regional balance of power. AAfter an Arbitral Tribunal pronounced a verdict in July 2016, invalidating China’s historical rights in the South China Sea, there is fear that the dispute might turn into a flashpoint for conflict. Beyond dwelling on the strategic deadlock that characterises the current state-of-play, contributors outline possible solutions and a way forward.

The Sino-US Security Dilemma: The Root Cause and Way Out | Teng Jianqun 

Singapore’s Security Dilemma | Koh Swee Lean Collin 

Indonesia’s South China Sea Problem | Ristian Supriyanto 

Vietnam’s Regional Security Challenges | Ha Anh Tuan 

Duterte’s Geopolitical Game-play | Richard Javad Heydarian 

A Japan-India Partnership in Maritime-Asia | Satoru Nagao

4 February 2017

India’s Naxalite Insurgency: History, Trajectory, and Implications for U.S.-India Security Cooperation on Domestic Counterinsurgency

By Thomas F. Lynch III

The pace of U.S.-India defense cooperation over the past decade—and especially the past 2 years—has been unprecedented and impressive in many areas. These areas include defense technology cooperation, the discussion of a framework for military-to-military agreements, and the expansion of joint military exercises. U.S.-India defense cooperation, however, will remain limited in critical areas where India’s historical independent interests remain firm. Among these areas of Indian reserve include strategic autonomy, the imperatives of domestic federalism, and the preference for a go-slow approach toward redressing civil unrest. Attemapts by U.S. policymakers to press harder in these areas will likely prove counterproductive.

India’s long-running class-based, economic insurgency—the Naxalite insurgency (or Community Party of India [CPI]-Maoist insurgency)—is a case study in which external security

partnerships will remain limited, if not mostly unwelcomed, in New Delhi. Known as “the greatest domestic security threat faced by India” from 2006 to 2011, the Naxalite insurgency

has receded and largely been contained—albeit still far from eliminated—as of 2016. India’s security response to the Naxalite insurgency from 2004 to 2015 demonstrates that New Delhi will prefer limited interaction with external security partners when addressing matters of domestic counterinsurgency.

With this insight, U.S. policymakers should not expect that New Delhi will accept direct assistance for its domestic counterinsurgency units in the foreseeable future, and the United

3 February 2017

Perspectives on Terrorism, Volume 10, Issue 6 (2016)



This issue of Perspectives on Terrorism includes 14 articles, a bibliography on Islamic terrorism in Europe, and a review essay on 12 texts that deal with al-Qaida and ISIS-related subjects. The articles, which largely focus on various manifestations of European jihadism, focus on 1) the future of jihadism in Europe; 2) European extremists and the new crime-terror nexus; 3) the tactical use of single-actor terrorists by the so-called Islamic State; 4) the role of governance networks in blunting violent extremism, and much more.

Author 

Petter Nesser, Anne Stenersen, Emilie Oftedal, Rajan Basra, Peter R Neumann, Clare Ellis, Nico Prucha, Jakob Sheikh, Philip Verwimp, Jeanine de Roy van Zuijdewijn, Jeane-Pierre Filiu, Ann-Sophie Hemmingsen, Carola Garcia-Calvo, Fernando Reinares, Brynjar Lia, Petter Nesser, Anja Dalgaard-Nielsen, Timothy Holman, Thomas Hegghammer, Judith Tinnes, Joshua Sinai (Ediotrs: Alex P Schmid, James J F Forest, Joseph J Easson) 

Series 

Countering China´s Adventurism in the South China Sea

 Ross Babbage


What should the U.S. and its close allies do about China’s strategic expansion into the South China Sea?

Beijing now has overwhelming military, coast guard and maritime militia forces in this theatre and it has seized numerous reefs and dredged up new islands in operations that that the U.N.’s Permanent Court of Arbitration has determined are illegal. Major military installations are being built in several locations. Three of these new islands, towards the middle of the South China Sea, will soon be capable of housing regiments of fighter-bomber aircraft and also of supporting sustained operations of significant numbers of ships. The rapidly changing strategic balance in Southeast Asia and the Western allies’ flat-footed response is encouraging several regional states to re-evaluate their long-standing security relationships.

This report argues that it is time for the U.S. and its close allies to clarify their goals in this theatre and develop a coherent strategy to counter China’s expansionist operations. It describes a surprisingly broad range of strategy and operational options that are potentially available for the Trump administration to pressure Beijing to moderate its behaviour, retrace some of its steps and deter the Chinese leadership from embarking on new, potentially more dangerous adventures.



Download full “Countering China’s Adventurism in the South China Sea” report. 

Main content

2 February 2017

Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ) 84 (1st Quarter, 2017

 Source Link

o From the Chairman: The Pace of Change

o An Interview with Robert O. Work

o Trust: The Sine Qua Non of Effective Joint Operations

o Searching for Digital Hilltops: A Doctrinal Approach to Identifying Key Terrain in Cyberspace

o Expanding Zeus's Shield: A New Approach for Theater Ballistic Missile Defense in the Asia-Pacific Region

o The Viability of Moral Dissent by the Military (or, Chapter 6 of the U.S. Truth and Reconciliation Commission: Conclusions Regarding the Second Internment of American Citizens)

o Civil Order and Governance as Military Responsibilities

o The Palestinian Security Force: Future Prospects

o The National War College: Celebrating 70 Years of Developing Strategic Practicioners

o The National War College: Marking 70 Years of Strategic Education

o Meaningful Metrics for Professional Military Education

o The Urgent Necessity to Reverse Service AirLand Roles

o Center of Gravity Analysis "Down Under": The Australian Defence Force's New Approach

o Hybrid Threat Center of Gravity Analysis: Taking a Fresh Look at ISIL

o Toward a Future National Strategy: A Review Essay

o Breaking Through with Your Breakthrough: How Science-Based Communication Can Promote Trust to Accelerate Innovation and Technological Advantage

o The Imperative for a Health Systems Approach to Global Health Engagement

o The Case for a Joint Evaluation

o Leadership and Operational Art in World War II: The Case for General Lesley J. McNair

31 January 2017

Prospects for the Rule of Law in Cyberspace

By Keir Giles

The application of international law and legal principles in cyberspace is a topic that has caused confusion, doubt, and interminable discussions between lawyers since the earliest days of the internationalization of the Internet. The still unresolved debate over whether cyberspace constitutes a fundamentally new domain that requires fundamentally new laws to govern it reveals basic ideological divides. On the one hand, the Euro-Atlantic community led by the United States believes, in broad terms, that activities in cyberspace require no new legislation, and existing legal obligations are sufficient. On the other, a large number of other states led by Russia and China believe that new international legal instruments are essential in order to govern information security overall, including those expressed through the evolving domain of cyberspace. Russia in particular argues that the challenges presented by cyberspace are too urgent to wait for customary law to develop as it has done in other domains; instead, urgent action is needed.

This Letort Paper will provide an overview of moves toward establishing norms and the rule of law in cyberspace, and the potential for establishing further international norms of behavior.

27 January 2017

Developing Senior Leaders for the Reserve Components

By Michael J. Mazarr

Research Questions 
In what ways can the development of reserve component (RC) senior leaders be improved? 
In what ways can RC leader development policies serve the goal of an effective and integrated Total Force? 

Leader development is one of the most important priorities for the U.S. military. Most of the services and agencies conceive of development in broadly similar ways — a combination of experiences, education, and mentoring. RAND researchers explored in what ways development of senior leaders in the reserve component can be improved, and in what ways reserve component leader development policies can serve the goal of an effective and integrated Total Force. This research is part of a larger research effort focused on general and flag officer requirements in the reserve components. This perspective reviews current practices in reserve component general officer development and surveys some of the innovative approaches the services are taking. It also explains some limitations to these approaches and offers recommendations for building a more formal system of deliberative development and making maximum use of general and flag officer assignments to achieve both developmental and Total Force objectives.

Key Findings

There is a Distinction Between Individual and Institutional Leader Development, Though They May Overlap 

Most assignments are not made strictly for "grooming" leaders, as that is a critical but ancillary activity. 

Nevertheless, job assignments are the most powerful and effective tool for developing leaders. 

"Broadening" — pushing leaders beyond their usual frame of reference to deal with unfamiliar issues by working across organizational boundaries to lead change or deal with a crisis — is integrally related to leader development. 

Leader Development is More Situation-Specific and Contingent Than Universal 

The relationship between experiences and development will depend on the leader; the key is not the job itself but the job as experienced by an individual. 

Experience of a position alone does not always produce the desired developmental results; including reflection, mentoring, and peer discussions contributes to development. 

There is little evidence connecting specific leader development practices with particular outcomes.