Showing posts with label Important Papers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Important Papers. Show all posts

17 April 2017

CTC Sentinel | Volume 10, Issue 3 (March 2017)

Published by Combating Terrorism Center


In our feature article, Seamus Hughes and Alexander Meleagrou-Hitchens focus on the threat to the United States from the Islamic State’s “virtual entrepreneurs” who have been using social media and encryption applications to recruit and correspond with sympathizers in the West, encouraging and directing them to engage in terrorist activity. They find that since 2014, contact with a virtual entrepreneur has been a feature of eight terrorist plots in the United States, involving 13 individuals.

In our other cover article, Ahmet Yayla, the former police counterterrorism chief in the Turkish city of Sanliurfa near the Syrian border, outlines how investigations into the New Year’s Eve Reina nightclub attack in Istanbul have made clear the “immense scale of the Islamic State threat to Turkey.” While the attack, remotely steered by Islamic State operatives in Raqqa, was the work of a single gunman, a 50-strong network in Istanbul with access to at least half a million dollars provided logistical support. With the Islamic State declaring all-out war on Turkey, Turkish counterterrorism capacity severely weakened by recent purges, as many as 2,000 Islamic State fighters already on Turkish soil, and the possibility that Islamic State fighters will flood into Turkey as the caliphate crumbles, Yayla warns of severe implications for international security.

8 April 2017

Confronting Pakistan’s Support For Terrorism: Don’t Designate, Calibrate

 Stephen Tankel

As emotionally gratifying as it might be, designating Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism would be a mistake. But unilateral and multilateral mechanisms could be used to try to coerce Pakistan to undertake tactical shifts on militancy that might have strategic effects over time.  Download 

6 April 2017



Lieutenant General Mark A. Brilakis 
Deputy Commandant, Manpower and Reserve Affairs, United States Marine Corps

Vice Admiral Robert P. Burke 
Chief of Naval Personnel, United States Navy

Major General Jason Evans 
Director, Military Personnel Management, United States Army

Lieutenant General Gina M. Grosso 
Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel and Services, United States Air Force

Mr. Anthony M. Kurta 
Performing the Duties of Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, Office of the Secretary of Defense

115th Congress

3 April 2017

CTC Sentinel 10 (3)


This edition of the CTC Sentinel looks at 1) the threat posed by the so-called Islamic States’ (IS) virtual entrepreneurs, who use social media and other tools to link up with radicalized individuals in the West; 2) what the 1 January 2017 attack on the Reina nightclub tells us about the threat IS poses to Turkey; 3) the role German foreign fighters are playing in Syria and Iraq; 4) the changing nature of jihadism in Australia, particularly since IS called for spontaneous attacks against the West; and 5) the wealth the Taliban and other groups are accruing from illegal mining in Afghanistan.

1 April 2017

China´s Growing Maritime Role in the South and East China Seas

Yusuke Saito 

This report speculates on the probable state of Chinese maritime power in the year 2030. Given Beijing’s current plans and policies, which mandate hegemonic control of the South and East China Seas, the text's author suggests that the US and Japan may need to make ‘drastic’ adjustments to their mid- and long-term visions for the region. The latter could involve, for example, the US shifting to a sea control strategy, establishing stronger operational ties between Japan and Australia, adapting Taiwan’s maritime presence, and more.

29 March 2017

Critical Assumptions and American Grand Strategy

Hal Brands, Peter Feaver, William Inboden, Paul D. Miller 

Every grand strategy rests on a set of critical assumptions about how the world works. Today, the assumptions underpinning American grand strategy are becoming more contested and uncertain than at any time in a generation. 

This report examines America's grand strategy in the post-Cold War era, it explores the global and regional assumptions that are now coming under strain, and it offers suggestions for how U.S. planners can best adapt to a more competitive and uncertain world.

Download full “Critical Assumptions and American Grand Strategy” report.

23 March 2017

Peace Education in Pakistan

This report measures the relative success of nine peace education initiatives in Pakistan. More specifically, the text grapples with six questions. 1) What types of interventions were most effective and in what contexts? 2) Were the implemented programs contextually relevant? 3) How was the quality of each initiative ensured? 4) What kinds of content and teaching formats worked best and where? 5) What differences and similarities exist between peace education programs and the curricula implemented in mainstream schools and madrassas? And 6) what lessons can those working in the peacebuilding field draw from the case studies selected here?

Sri Lanka Suffers from China´s Indian Ocean Strategy

This bulletin looks at the impact of China’s investments in Sri Lanka, which include assorted loans and the sale of the port in Hambantota to a Chinese firm. The bulletin’s author ultimately concludes that the investments aren’t boosting the local economy because the money isn’t staying in the country, which is a familiar way of doing business on Beijing’s part. In fact, it’s possible that Sri Lanka will have to be bailed out because of its crushing Chinese-owned debt. The author further argues that India must recalibrate its security strategy towards other South Asian countries if it hopes to respond effectively to China’s activities in the Indian Ocean.

22 March 2017

Military Spending For a New Strategic Reality: 2016 Roundtable Series Summary and Analysis

This text focuses on the impact America’s military budget could have on the country’s allies and partners. The text specifically focuses on 1) the difficulties of striking the right balance between force modernization and investing in new technologies, particularly in a fiscally constrained environment; 2) the global next-steps in arms control and nuclear weapons modernization; 3) the role the Trump administration will most likely assume in the world; and 4) what the international community should do to counter the propaganda-based warfare now being conducted in different parts of the world.

Strengthening the Asian Development Bank in 21st Century Asia

This report speculates on how the Asian Development Bank (ADB) can remain an influential actor in Asia. More specifically, the text’s authors 1) highlight how financial norms and practices have evolved in the region over the last 50 years; 2) review the ADB’s design and functions; 3) explore the economic challenges that are relevant to the Bank’s mission, and how it is trying to adapt to them; and 4) conclude that the ADB must maintain its neutrality in a geopolitically fraught environment, but not at the expense of giving more influence to its regional members.

20 March 2017

Pakistan: Stoking the Fire in Karachi

Facts are facts – ethnic, political and sectarian rivalries; jihadist groups; criminality and heavy-handed security policies are turning Pakistan's biggest city into a pressure cooker that's about to explode. According to this report, feuding politicians will have to set their conflicts aside or Karachi's law-and-order crisis may indeed reach the bursting point.

17 March 2017

After ISIS: U.S. Political-Military Strategy in the Global War on Terror

Sooner or later, and probably within the next few months, the United States and its coalition partners will defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) militarily, by collapsing its control of key areas in Iraq and Syria. That operational victory, however, will not necessarily prevent remnants of ISIS from reforming at a later date, nor will it bring a larger strategic triumph in the global war on terror. As long as large parts of the greater Middle East remain founts of ideological extremism, the United States will continue to confront a dangerous challenge from jihadist terrorism.

In this report, Hal Brands and Peter Feaver assess America's strategic options after ISIS by examining four politico-military strategies for counter-terrorism. They conclude that an enhanced version of the approach that the Obama administration took to defeating ISIS represents the best strategy for waging a dangerous conflict that is likely to endure for many years.

Download full “After ISIS: U.S. Political-Military Strategy in the Global War on Terror” report.

1 March 2017

Combating Terrorism Center’s Sentinel - February 2017 Issue Now Online

In an extensive interview, General John W. Nicholson, commander of Resolute Support and U.S. Forces-Afghanistan, stresses the importance of preventing the country from again becoming a platform for international terrorism, noting counterterrorism operations have almost halved the fighting strength of the Islamic State’s local affiliate. He also outlines the ongoing effort to empower Afghan efforts against the Taliban, saying: “They’re at a bit of a stalemate. The government holds about two-thirds of the population. The enemy holds a solid 8 to 10 percent. … We think [if] we get to about 80 percent or more, we start to reach a tipping point where the insurgency becomes more irrelevant.”

Our cover story by Georg Heil focuses on the deadly truck attack this past December in Berlin by Anis Amri, a Tunisian extremist suspected of links to Islamic State operatives in Libya. Investigations have made clear the danger posed by the radical network he belonged to in northwestern Germany led by an Iraqi preacher named Abu Walaa. It is believed to have recruited dozens to travel to join the Islamic State, communicated extensively with Islamic State operatives in Syria and Iraq, and encouraged attacks on German soil. Heil argues the high level of interconnectedness between these radicals in Germany and the Islamic State has potentially grave implications for European security.

24 February 2017

Local Conflict, Local Peacekeeping

This report examines how local conflicts undermine the mandates and effectiveness of UN peacekeeping missions. To help deal with the problem, the text’s authors 1) provide a framework which prioritizes the conflicts peacekeepers should address; 2) describe the ‘whole-of-mission’ approach UN missions should adopt in managing local struggles; and 3) recommend ways to strengthen the capacities and mandates of UN missions.

Author   Aditi Gorur, Madeline Vellturo 

Publisher  Stimson Center

21 February 2017

2017 Global Forecast

Global Forecast is an annual collection of essays by CSIS experts focused on the critical issues facing the U.S. and the world in the year ahead. 

John J. Hamre 

Michael J. Green 

A conversation with Heather A. Conley, Matthew P. Goodman, and Scott Miller 

Olga Oliker 

A conversation with Christopher K. Johnson, Victor Cha, and Amy Searight 

Andrew Shearer 

16 February 2017

Cyber Prep 2.0: Motivating Organizational Cyber Strategies in Terms of Threat Preparedness

Deborah J. Bodeau, Richard D. Graubart

As cyber threats evolve, organizations increasingly need to define their strategies for cyber security, defense, and resilience. Cyber Prep 2.0 is a threat-oriented approach that allows an organization to define and articulate its threat assumptions, and to develop organization-appropriate, tailored strategic elements. While Cyber Prep 2.0 focuses on advanced threats and corresponding elements of organizational strategy, it includes material related to conventional cyber threats. Cyber Prep 2.0 can be used in standalone fashion, or it can be used to complement and extend the use of other, more detailed frameworks (e.g., the NIST Cybersecurity Framework) and threat models. 

15 February 2017

Restoring American Seapower

By Bryan Clark, Peter Haynes, Jesse Sloman, Timothy Walton

A New Fleet Architecture for the United States Navy

The United States faces a very different set of security challenges than it has since the Cold War. Great power competitors such as China and Russia improved their military capabilities over the last two decades while America focused on Middle East insurgencies, and now appear willing to challenge the international order. They are likely to replace transnational terrorism in the near future as the primary concern of U.S. military planners. Gaining an advantage in great power competitions, deterring aggression, and reassuring allies will require changes to the ships, aircraft, weapons, sensors, basing, and readiness processes of U.S. naval forces, which essentially operated unopposed since the Berlin Wall fell. CSBA’s Restoring American Seapower: A New Fleet Architecture for the United States Navy explores those implications and proposes a new fleet construct for the U.S. Navy to pursue over the next two decades.

The Navy will need to take a new approach to deterring great power competitors than it did against regional powers such as Iraq. This new approach will also require innovative operating concepts, adaptive force packages, and a more distributed and robust naval posture that emphasizes effectiveness over efficiency. Together, new ways of operating, new deployment approaches, and new force packages require a larger and more diverse fleet of ships, aircraft, and unmanned systems. If the U.S. Navy does not pursue such a new architecture, by the 2030s the United States may not be able to effectively compete with great powers such as China and Russia or even regional powers such as Iran. This will undermine its alliance relationships, its economic health, and ultimately its place as an exceptional country.

7 February 2017


Heather A. Conley, Europe Program

In May 2016, the CSIS Europe Program and Tongji University in China co-hosted its second annual forum on the Arctic in Washington, D.C. This forum seeks to strengthen dialogue and improve understanding on a full range of environmental, economic, institutional and strategic issues in the Arctic. We are pleased to present a new report, U.S.-Sino Relations in the Arctic: A Roadmap for Future Cooperation, which includes a collection of essays authored by U.S. and Chinese experts that describe areas of shared cooperation and interests, discuss regional challenges, and suggest future mechanisms of dialogue for the Arctic.

6 February 2017

Line in the waters: The South China sea dispute and its implications for Asia


Line in the Waters looks at emerging security dynamics in the Southeast Asian littorals and their impact on Asian geopolitics and security. It presents country perspectives of the strategic implications of recent developments in the South China Sea, their implications for maritime security and the regional balance of power. AAfter an Arbitral Tribunal pronounced a verdict in July 2016, invalidating China’s historical rights in the South China Sea, there is fear that the dispute might turn into a flashpoint for conflict. Beyond dwelling on the strategic deadlock that characterises the current state-of-play, contributors outline possible solutions and a way forward.

The Sino-US Security Dilemma: The Root Cause and Way Out | Teng Jianqun 

Singapore’s Security Dilemma | Koh Swee Lean Collin 

Indonesia’s South China Sea Problem | Ristian Supriyanto 

Vietnam’s Regional Security Challenges | Ha Anh Tuan 

Duterte’s Geopolitical Game-play | Richard Javad Heydarian 

A Japan-India Partnership in Maritime-Asia | Satoru Nagao